🔗 Share this article

During a opulent speakeasy-style gathering hosted at Raffles hotel in central London this week, the great and the good of what is left within Tory circles marked a major magazine's annual political honors.

With the magazine’s editorial line continuing to backing the Tories, despite the party confront severe challenges posed by Reform, observers expected that much of the gossip at the champagne-fuelled event was about whether Kemi Badenoch’s job was at risk.

Party Rivalries Surface at Awards

James Cleverly, who unsuccessfully ran, made pointed remarks during his speech at the naked ambition of his shadow cabinet colleague, Robert Jenrick – considered the main challenger.

“Am I after her job? Will I make a move between her shoulder blades and steal the crown? Certainly not,” the veteran Tory cabinet minister informed the amused crowd as he opened the awards ceremony.

Jenrick, who came second, has recently shifted alarmingly to the right to counter Reform's influence, did at least manage to chuckle. His own manoeuvres are far from discreet.

Deadline to Leadership Contest Starts

Months ago, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers set up a countdown clock on social media showing remaining time until Conservative rules allow rivals to mount a challenge. That period concludes on Sunday.

At that point, the Tory leader’s critics can formally request a leadership election. Revised guidelines established recently raising the required support, meaning 30% from parliamentary colleagues must endorse, up from 15%, establishing a tougher standard for those trying to oust her.

Potential Challengers and Backing

But could any putative rivals – Jenrick foremost among them – secure support from colleagues needed to initiate proceedings? Party sources reference the numbers who nominated him during the last race: twenty-eight initially. “That’s your starting point,” according to insiders.

There is no shortage of Tory MPs willing to share their frustrations about Badenoch: her style, her political judgment, her public appeal. But, for the most part, they remain cautious about committing yet another act a leadership overthrow at this time.

Breathing Space and Poll Anxieties

Several party members further think the leader's conference address during the fall gathering, announcing a policy of abolishing stamp duty on primary homes, secured her temporary relief.

“We might not be happy with Kemi’s leadership but we’ll be very careful about getting rid of her. Voters already perceive we engage in internal conflicts. We don’t need to give them further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.

That is not to say the plotting is not under way. “Kemi has until May. The local elections are going to be cataclysmic for us. No one will desire to assume leadership preemptively and bear responsibility. However, post-elections, we must find a leader capable of guiding toward renewal,” one shadow cabinet minister commented.

Polling Figures and Public Opinion

Recent surveys indicate Badenoch has made little progress with the public over the last year with declining in personal approval. At -22 points, her standing is lower compared to her rival and Mel Stride (-21), per recent polling.

Data from YouGov also shows that Badenoch has convinced just one in eight voters she is ready for higher office. The outlook improves with party supporters, with 54% saying they approve of her performance as party leader, and only 30% opposing her continuation into the national campaign.

Upcoming Scenarios and Party Strategies

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, a general agreement exists among the MPs that Badenoch will not be the one to lead the party into the next election.

The main division centers on timing for a spring leadership change to potentially halt Reform’s momentum – or leave it until closer the election date when Farage might have imploded, and public receptiveness improves to listen to the Tories again.

Widely known that Jenrick thinks he is the man for the job. But his allies say he has no plans to move now, and agrees with those advocating patience until May.

Other Contenders and Strategies

Some speculate that a rescuer could emerge may end up being somebody with a lower profile (the shadow climate secretary Claire Coutinho gets mentioned) or among newer MPs without strong associations to the party’s time in power.

Cleverly, who came third, is also cited as a potentially unifying figure, remaining reserved. Supporters indicate he thinks there is no alternative but to carry on with Badenoch, as anybody taking over now would inherit an even more difficult situation.

Should a race begin, some would certainly urging Cleverly to stand, and he might reconsider another attempt. A small group moderate legislators are organizing opposition efforts to block the frontrunner leader in any eventual contest.

Rightward Shift and Electoral Calculations

An influential insider cautioned that momentum favors right-wingers both inside and outside the party, mentioning names like Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “Opportunity exists for Cleverly as he has the stature and the relationship with members, and some want to stop Robert completely.”

“Quite a lot of minds potential agreements or coalition with Reform at some stage. Recent parliamentary divisions regarding assisted suicide and decriminalising abortion there was a lot of calls for expulsion who voted for those out the party’ and Reform’s private messaging suggests Liberal Democrat you’d have to get rid of’. This advantages in Robert’s favour a bit.”

However, another added: “The outcome remains a foregone conclusion. A competitive race involving multiple candidates – other prominent figures. The assumption that conservatives consistently secure membership support may not hold true.”