Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
