Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.