A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
