Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The average count of per-day murders per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder data could fail to signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that last month the least amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that relying on homicide data to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is especially true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it could mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.